|
Morgan & Company service subscribers receive additional analysis &
information.
January 1, 2010 -
U.S. Automotive Sales Analysis
December US auto sales analysis/reports/charts will be distributed
to subscribers Tuesday, January 5th.
We will
then post a summary below.
Visit the
Sales Analysis Page for subscription
to the complete monthly Sales Analysis
and to view past month summary pages.
January 5, 2010 - US Auto Sales for December &
Calendar Year 2009
Adobe (pdf)
Format
Excel (xls)
Format
January 28, 2010 - Forecast
versus Actuals for 2009
In January of 2009 our forecast for 2009 US auto sales was 10.675
million.
Actual 2009 calendar year sales totaled 10.425 million for a variance
of just 2.3%.
Our January, 2009 North American vehicle
production outlook was 9,404,500 units.
Actual calendar year 2009 production totaled 8,576,497 vehicles, for a
variance of 8.8%.
In March of 2009 our final 1st quarter
production forecast was revised to 8,572,304
for a variance to actual of only 4,193 units or just a fraction of one
percent (0.05%).
Outlook for 2010:
Our forecast for US auto sales in 2010 is 11.375 million units.
Our forecast for North American vehicle
production in 2010 is 9,948,750.
|
Year |
Volume |
% Change |
|
2006 |
15,272,480 |
-3.3% |
|
2007 |
15,078,508 |
-1.3% |
|
2008 |
12,633,362 |
-16.2% |
|
2009 |
8,576,497 |
-32.1% |
|
2010 |
9,948,750 |
16.0% |
|
2011 |
11,073,000 |
11.3% |
|
2012 |
12,121,000 |
9.5% |
|
2013 |
12,993,000 |
7.2% |
|
2014 |
13,788,500 |
6.1% |
|
2015 |
14,337,000 |
4.0% |
|
2016 |
14,711,125 |
2.6% |
Here is our latest Accuracy Report.
This compares our original (January) forecast
compared to actual year-end totals for the past 7 years:
|
|
January |
Actual |
|
|
|
Year |
Forecast |
Total |
Variance |
Variance % |
|
2003 |
15,767,550 |
15,910,153 |
142,603 |
0.90% |
|
2004 |
15,731,200 |
15,787,972 |
56,772 |
0.36% |
|
2005 |
15,792,750 |
15,791,271 |
-1,479 |
-0.01% |
|
2006 |
15,782,725 |
15,272,480 |
-510,245 |
-3.23% |
|
2007 |
15,268,250 |
15,078,508 |
-189,742 |
-1.24% |
|
2008 |
14,560,000 |
12,633,362 |
-1,926,638 |
-13.23% |
|
2009 |
9,404,500 |
8,576,497 |
-828,003 |
-8.80% |
|
