|
2007 Year In Review - North American Production - Cars & Light
Trucks:
Our original forecast for 2007 (as of January, 2007) projected North
American
vehicle production would total 15,268,250. The actual total was
15,078,508;
1.24% lower than our initial forecast.
|
2007 Original Forecast vs. Year-End Totals |
|
Group |
Forecast |
Actual |
Variance |
Variance % |
|
Detroit 3 |
9,643,250 |
9,509,438 |
(133,812) |
-1.39% |
|
NDMs |
5,625,000 |
5,569,070 |
(55,930) |
-0.99% |
|
Total |
15,268,250 |
15,078,508 |
(189,742) |
-1.24% |
NDM = New Domestic Manufacturers
Light Vehicles - excludes Medium Commercial & Heavy Trucks
A comparison of our original forecast to actual
calendar year totals:
|
|
January |
Actual |
|
|
|
Year |
Forecast |
Total |
Variance |
Variance % |
|
2003 |
15,767,550 |
15,910,153 |
142,603 |
0.90% |
|
2004 |
15,731,200 |
15,787,972 |
56,772 |
0.36% |
|
2005 |
15,792,750 |
15,791,271 |
-1,479 |
-0.01% |
|
2006 |
15,782,725 |
15,272,480 |
-510,245 |
-3.23% |
|
2007 |
15,268,250 |
15,078,508 |
-189,742 |
-1.24% |
|
2008 |
14,560,000 |
12,641,910 |
-1,918,090 |
-13.17% |
|
2009 |
9,404,500 |
|
|
|
NDM = New Domestic Manufacturers
Light Vehicles - excludes Medium Commercial & Heavy Trucks
2008 Year In Review - North American Production - Cars & Light
Trucks:
|
2008 Original Forecast vs. Year-End Totals |
|
Group |
Forecast |
Actual |
Variance |
Variance % |
|
Detroit 3 |
8,933,000 |
7,494,901 |
-1,438,099 |
-16.10% |
|
NDMs |
5,627,000 |
5,147,009 |
-479,991 |
-8.53% |
|
Total |
14,560,000 |
12,641,910 |
-1,918,090 |
-13.17% |
NDM = New Domestic Manufacturers
Light Vehicles - excludes Medium Commercial & Heavy Trucks
Our original forecast for 2008 (as of January, 2008) projected North
American
vehicle production would total 14,560,000. The actual total was
12,641,910;
13.17% lower than our initial forecast.
We progressively lowered our 2008 forecast
during the year as consumers continued
to grapple with falling home values and rising unemployment.
Q1 auto production fell by 8.4%; Q2 was down 14.7% and Q3 dropped by
25.6%.
Many consumers have felt additional pain
since September, 2008 as the financial crisis
came to fruition - basically taking 40% of the value from retirement
accounts and
investments in the equity markets.
Q4, 2008 auto production was 932,715
(25.6%) lower than Q4 of 2007.
Q4 light vehicle sales in the US, on an annualized basis, totaled
10.31 million.
Consumers have become paralyzed by the
global financial and economic crisis.
The uncertainty has made this one of the most difficult times in the
history of the
automotive industry.
Outlook for 2009:
January 28, 2009 - US Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
for 2009
Our forecast for 2009 light vehicle sales
in the US stands at 10,675,000.
Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates by Quarter:
Q1 = 10.35 million
Q2 = 10.55 million
Q3 = 10.80 million
Q4 = 11.00 million
January 28, 2009 - North American Light Vehicle
Production Forecast
North American Light Vehicle Production Outlook:
|
Year |
Volume |
Change |
|
2006 |
15,272,480 |
-3.3% |
|
2007 |
15,078,508 |
-1.3% |
|
2008 |
12,641,910 |
-16.2% |
|
2009 |
9,404,500 |
-25.6% |
|
2010 |
10,961,500 |
16.6% |
|
2011 |
12,696,000 |
15.8% |
|
2012 |
13,815,500 |
8.8% |
|
2013 |
14,545,500 |
5.3% |
|
2014 |
15,068,500 |
3.6% |
March 26, 2009 - North
American Light Vehicle Production Outlook
Morgan & Company reduced it's 2009 forecast by 830,000 units this
month.
We had been forecasting 2009 vehicle production to be 9.40 million
since December, 2008.
The North American forecast for 2009
now stands at 8.57 million.
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