Morgan & Company, Inc.
Automotive Forecast Services
 

 
Morgan & Company provides realistic forecasts and the intelligence to assess the implications that affect your organization's sales and market share.  The forecasts provide a seven-year outlook by manufacturer, platform, segment and assembly plant location.
The forecast is provided as follows:
       Single Issue -
       Annual Subscription - Quarterly Updates
       Annual Subscription - Monthly Updates

Reports are distributed in Excel (xls) and Adobe (pdf) format.

See the Price List / Order Form for further details.  Adobe (pdf)  or  Excel (xls) format. 

North American Vehicle Forecast / Global Outlook
Table of Contents:
               
Executive Overview
       Global - Notes / Commentary      
       Global - Production Overview & Outlook
       Volume by Manufacturer - North America
       Volume by Market Segment - North America 
       Volume by Assembly Location - North America

      Sales & Production Charts     
       Sales & Production Charts for each industry
       segment and every nameplate are provided
       in a separate file & book.

Business Cycle & Economic Indicators         
 

Vehicles by Manufacturer & Group
      
Vehicles by Platform Within Manufacturer
      
Vehicles by Market Segment
      
All Vehicles by Production/Assembly Plants
      
Nameplate Production
       Straight-Time Capacity
       Capacity Utilization Rates
     
All Vehicles  - Production by Month Within Years
     
Chart Book
       Sales & Production (15+ years) for each group
       and nameplate manufactured in North America
     
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2007 Year In Review - North American Production - Cars & Light Trucks:
Our original forecast for 2007 (as of January, 2007) projected North American
vehicle production would total 15,268,250.  The actual total was 15,078,508;
1.24% lower than our initial forecast.
 
2007 Original Forecast vs. Year-End Totals
Group Forecast Actual Variance Variance %
Detroit 3         9,643,250         9,509,438           (133,812) -1.39%
NDMs         5,625,000         5,569,070             (55,930) -0.99%
Total       15,268,250       15,078,508           (189,742) -1.24%

NDM = New Domestic Manufacturers
 Light Vehicles - excludes Medium Commercial & Heavy Trucks


A comparison of our original forecast to actual calendar year totals:
 
  January Actual    
Year Forecast Total Variance Variance %
2003       15,767,550       15,910,153 142,603 0.90%
2004       15,731,200       15,787,972 56,772 0.36%
2005       15,792,750       15,791,271 -1,479 -0.01%
2006       15,782,725       15,272,480 -510,245 -3.23%
2007       15,268,250       15,078,508 -189,742 -1.24%
2008       14,560,000       12,641,910 -1,918,090 -13.17%
2009         9,404,500      

 NDM = New Domestic Manufacturers
 Light Vehicles - excludes Medium Commercial & Heavy Trucks

2008 Year In Review - North American Production - Cars & Light Trucks:
 
2008 Original Forecast vs. Year-End Totals
Group Forecast Actual Variance Variance %
Detroit 3         8,933,000         7,494,901 -1,438,099 -16.10%
NDMs         5,627,000         5,147,009 -479,991 -8.53%
Total       14,560,000       12,641,910 -1,918,090 -13.17%

NDM = New Domestic Manufacturers
 Light Vehicles - excludes Medium Commercial & Heavy Trucks

Our original forecast for 2008 (as of January, 2008) projected North American
vehicle production would total 14,560,000.  The actual total was 12,641,910;
13.17% lower than our initial forecast.

We progressively lowered our 2008 forecast during the year as consumers continued
to grapple with falling home values and rising unemployment.
Q1 auto production fell by 8.4%; Q2 was down 14.7% and Q3 dropped by 25.6%.

Many consumers have felt additional pain since September, 2008 as the financial crisis
came to fruition - basically taking 40% of the value from retirement accounts and
investments in the equity markets.

Q4, 2008 auto production was 932,715 (25.6%) lower than Q4 of 2007.
Q4 light vehicle sales in the US, on an annualized basis, totaled 10.31 million.

Consumers have become paralyzed by the global financial and economic crisis.
The uncertainty has made this one of the most difficult times in the history of the
automotive industry.

Outlook for 2009:

January 28, 2009  -  US Light Vehicle Sales Forecast for 2009

Our forecast for 2009 light vehicle sales in the US stands at 10,675,000.

Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates by Quarter:
Q1 = 10.35 million
Q2 = 10.55 million
Q3 = 10.80 million
Q4 = 11.00 million

January 28, 2009  -  North American Light Vehicle Production Forecast

North American Light Vehicle Production Outlook:
Year Volume Change
2006 15,272,480 -3.3%
2007 15,078,508 -1.3%
2008 12,641,910 -16.2%
2009 9,404,500 -25.6%
2010 10,961,500 16.6%
2011 12,696,000 15.8%
2012 13,815,500 8.8%
2013 14,545,500 5.3%
2014 15,068,500 3.6%

March 26, 2009  -  North American Light Vehicle Production Outlook
Morgan & Company reduced it's 2009 forecast by 830,000 units this month.
We had been forecasting 2009 vehicle production to be 9.40 million since December, 2008.

The North American forecast for 2009 now stands at 8.57 million.

 

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Morgan & Company, Inc. 
Automotive Research, Analysis & Forecast Services
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